Alpha.global.Indices – Short Hong Kong, long Dow delivers 17%

The Dow performance cycles have turned lower. The Dow is set to underperform the S&P 500 and many other global benchmarks like Indian Sensex and Hong Kong Hang Seng. This is not very surprising as HSI and Sensex share a high correlation. Moreover Hang Seng has been underperforming DOW since May 2009. The Long Dow – short Hang Seng pair delivered 17% for the period. The polarity has reversed now and the running pair is Long Hang Seng – Short DOW.

There are more potential underperformers now. Maybe the net number of topping cycles compared to bottoming cycles might have some forecasting cues. Barring Sensex and Hang Seng most other global indices have falling performance cycles. The latest alpha carries numeric rankings, numeric ranking changes, alpha tracker, performance and pair cycles.

Alpha Tracker – Week over Week, Month over Month, Year to Date

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performace Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

COVERAGE: BVSP (Brazil), IRTS (Russia), Sensex (India), DOW (US), DAX (Germany), CAC (France), Nikkei (Japan), Hang Seng (Hong Kong) .

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA