Author Archives: Orpheus

Orpheus Rieki (Performance Cycles) featured in Journal of Economic Policy (Sofia)

By Orpheus | Published: 31 August, 2010
Download Paper Orpheus Research at Reuters – United Kingdom Orpheus Research at Reuters – United States
Posted in Central and East European Region, Global Pairs, Research Papers | Leave a comment

Alpha.India – Revisiting the CNXIT – BSE Metals case

By Orpheus | Published: 29 August, 2010
Three weeks ago we talked about two top potential outperformer sectors on the Indian market, CNXIT and BSE Metals. We said that although both should outperform, the CNXIT – Metals pair performance cycles suggests that Metals should outperform more than the Technology sector. Now let’s see what happened during these three weeks. At a first [...]
Posted in Indian Pairs and Assets | Tagged | Leave a comment

Alpha.India – The Tisco case

By Orpheus | Published: 22 August, 2010
We have been talking about the potential outperformance of Metals since mid July. We highlighted three metal stocks and the metals sector as potential outperformers. These three stocks were Sterlite, Tisco and Hindalco. Sterlite, Hindalco are still outperforming (somewhere in the middle of the numeric rankings), metals sector is still low in rankings suggesting further [...]
Posted in Indian Pairs and Assets | Tagged | Leave a comment

Alpha.India – The Fear index is ready to push higher

By Orpheus | Published: 15 August, 2010
The Volatility index or, as it is often called, the “fear index” measures the expected fluctuations in stock prices. A high VIX can mean fear of volatility in either direction, downside or upside. This means that a rising VIX is not necessarily bearish for stocks, but it implies a potential important movement in the market. [...]
Posted in Indian Pairs and Assets | Tagged | Leave a comment

Alpha.India – Technology sector versus Metals

By Orpheus | Published: 9 August, 2010
Nifty made a Key Reversal bar near our anticipated resistances at 5,500 levels. The daily RSI is non-confirming and continues to suggest an exhausting upmove. Our minor view on the Indian market remains up but topping and we are not looking higher than 5,500-5,600 levels at this stage. The technology and the metals sector were [...]
Posted in Indian Pairs and Assets | Leave a comment

The skyrocket crackle

By Orpheus | Published: 7 August, 2010
First it was Armajaro buying 7% of cocoa market, then it was Bloomberg news about rallying Sugar as ships clogged Brazil ports and then we had wheat surge backed by worst 100 year drought. We at Orpheus are looking at Inflationary era ahead and disagree with the idea that low interest rate era is here [...]
Posted in Aggregate | Leave a comment

The Portfolio Rieki

By Orpheus | Published: 6 August, 2010
What if there was a tool which could illustrate the performance cyclicality of your portfolio? How would it help? Could this change how investments are done? A portfolio like an asset has a performance cycle. There is an optimum peak performance for a given holding period for a certain portfolio, after which the portfolio performance [...]
Posted in Primers | Leave a comment

Long zinc, short coffee delivers 9% (7 days)

By Orpheus | Published: 3 August, 2010
Despite starting counterparty odds, long zinc -  short coffee was up 9% and long AIGI (industrial metals) – short gold was up 14%. This week we are doing another pair rollover. We are closing the short heating oil leg and plugging the long AIGE (Energy Index) leg with Natural Gas. The Natgas Rieki is turning [...]
Posted in Aggregate, Agro Commodities, Bonds, Cross Pairs, Energy Pairs and Assets, Forex, Global Pairs, Ideas, Soft Pairs | Leave a comment

Alpha.India – Weak INR could exacerbate coming week

By Orpheus | Published: 1 August, 2010
Our minor view on the Indian market is now down as Nifty continued to push lower from the Evening Star we highlighted last week and also broke key supports at 5,360 levels. We could witness further minor or even intermediate negativity right ahead. Now that the market is turning bearish, the top potential underperformers to watch [...]
Posted in Indian Pairs and Assets | Tagged | Leave a comment

The Hunt brothers – II

By Orpheus | Published: 28 July, 2010
The historical case of silver Thursday suggests cornering of assets is a cyclical event with probable consequences. Cornering markets may have come off age, but even today traders dare to take large bets. How safe is it? What do historical cases suggest? Are there any signatures linked with such trades? What does numeric ranking of [...]
Posted in Agro Commodities, Bonds, Cross Pairs, Energy Pairs and Assets, Forex, Global Pairs, Metal Pairs | Leave a comment