Author Archives: Orpheus

Alpha Romania – Banking and Financials

By Orpheus | Published: 28 June, 2010
It might look strange, but banking and financials are at the bottom of numeric rankings. All of BRD, SIFs and Impact are at the bottom. What does this mean? This means unlike popular belief that financials are more in the heat of things, it’s the financials that should outperform the rest of the market. And [...]
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Alpha.India: SBI – Maruti up 11%

By Orpheus | Published: 27 June, 2010
Maruti’s outperformance continues as anticipated. The SBI – Maruti and Nifty – Maruti pairs are up 11% and 8% respectively. SBI’s underperformance seems to be starting, as the performance cycles turns negative. The SBI – HDFC and Nifty – SBI pairs are up 2% and 4% respectively. We are expecting fresh signals in the case [...]
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No reversal on dollar yet

By Orpheus | Published: 27 June, 2010
The 4 Jun pairs trading on dollar underperformance continue to run. Long LERO (Euro) – Short dollar, Long LGBP – Short Euro and Long YEN – Short dollar delivered 3%, 4% and 5% respectively. Though after 22 calendar days dollar performance cycles have already bottomed, we don’t have a close signal yet for the respective [...]
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Heating oil vs. Crude oil

By Orpheus | Published: 24 June, 2010
Heating oil accounts for about 25% of the yield of a barrel of crude oil, the second largest “cut” after gasoline (petrol) and heating oil futures are used to hedge diesel fuel and jet fuel. This all makes heating oil a high correlated asset to crude oil. This is one reason why long heating oil, [...]
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The gold short

By Orpheus | Published: 23 June, 2010
Historical highs are very tempting buy points. Can this best time for Gold bulls be the worst entry point? If you ask market players to compare physical gold and simple arithmetical relative performance, what do you think investors would choose? Yes definitely gold. When it comes to gold, we can short all sanity and go [...]
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SNP, TEL, TGN, ATB to underperform BETXT

By Orpheus | Published: 22 June, 2010
Today we initiate new pairs as SNP, TGN. TEL, ATB get ready to underperform BETXT. BRD – BETXT remains a running pair in favor of BRD. We close ATB-BETXT as ATB tops performance cycles and gets ready to underperform. The DOW and STOXX outperformance against many BVB majors has topped. Both DOW and STOXX get [...]
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Alpha.India: SBI – HDFC, TCS – Infosys pairs added

By Orpheus | Published: 20 June, 2010
We added two fresh pairs to our running pairs tracker. Long HDFC – short SBI and long TCS – short Infosys started on 17 Jun. The performance cycles turned and suggest that both of the pairs should deliver gains over the next few weeks. Our SBI – Maruti and Nifty – Maruti pairs are up [...]
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The dollar countertrend?

By Orpheus | Published: 20 June, 2010
After illustrating that long dollar, short Euro or vice versa is a pair trading strategy, we captured 24%, 13% on Long Dollar, Short LERO (Euro) and Long Dollar index, Short GBP. Then on 4 Jun we mentioned that dollar Index should underperform. What happened? Long LERO (Euro) – Short dollar, Long LGBP – Short Euro [...]
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Alpha Romania – Long DOW, short SIF5 Futures up 70%

By Orpheus | Published: 14 June, 2010
Strategy Update Exactly two months ago, we initiated the DOW-SIF5 Futures pair. We are now up, with 70% gain. Also DOW-BETXT is up since last week, and reaches 32% gain. ATB showed an underperformance against DOW, thus closing the ATB-DOW pair on stop loss hit. The other pharmaceutical pairs recorded increases taking BIO-BETXT to 5% [...]
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Alpha.India: Long Nifty – short SBI begins

By Orpheus | Published: 13 June, 2010
SBI (State Bank of India) remains our top potential underperformer stock, followed by HDBK (HDFC Bank) and ONGC (Oil and Gas Corporation). HDFC continued to push lower in rankings as anticipated and we expect it to further underperform against Nifty. At the bottom of the list we have Sterlite, Maruti and Tisco as top potential [...]
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