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Category Archives: Cross Pairs
ALPHA.GLOBAL – BOEING VS. OIL
The first pair we tested on performance cycles were BOEING vs. OIL in July 2008. Oil was heading into new highs every day and Boeing was underperforming. Time fractals suggested that it was time for the performance cycle to turn in favor of the Industrial major. What happened was historical. The performance cycle we were [...]
Also posted in Cross Region, Global Pairs Leave a comment
ELLIOTT VS TIME
Challenging a seventy year old market forecasting theory isn’t easy. It is tougher if one is a practitioner himself and a believer in the Elliott wave theory of price fractals. However, when we talk about TIME FRACTALS, PRICE FRACTALS have a strong challenger, even if the theory of TIME is at a nascent stage. We [...]
THE DOLLAR SENSEX
There are stories about the inverse correlation between SENSEX and the US Dollar Index (USD). The same stories which talk about inverse correlation can also explain perfect correlation, but there is something missing here. First, perfect correlation does not last. Second, if instead of absolute prices if we compare changes between prices, the idea of [...]
LONG DOW, SHORT OIL
Long DOW, Short OIL might seem like a counterintuitive pair after we have already recommended LONG Gold, Short DOW, but the reality is different. Gold and OIL though belong to the same commodity asset class can behave differently. Gold is a crisis commodity and the weekly cycle lows against DOW (SLIDE 1) suggest that even [...]
Long Gold, Short Dow
Now that Gold has pushed up above 900 and GOLD-DOW performance cycles are pointing higher. We would like to see a clear turn back below 900 to be negative. The overall industrial metals case seems to be topping, another reason for us to believe short equity, long Gold pair might be at least worth a perspective watch the week ahead.
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The BRIC Model From A Japanese Perspective.
Starting with the fundamental idea of an “emerging market economy”, it's role, utility and dynamics in the current global set up as a balancing economic block, the paper analysis Goldman Sach's emerging BRIC’s countries model in context of the pre and post 2008 financial crisis. The paper looks at micro and macroeconomic valuations, currency and the economic cycles to illustrate changes in the four economies. Using Japan as a developed economy, the paper also makes a comparative approach and tries to forecast the economic development of the block and respective relation among these countries.
Also posted in Cross Region, Research Papers, Russia 1 Comment
Oil vs. Dow
The OIL vs. DOW ratio line depicts OIL performance compared to DOW. The ratio line in Fig.1 suggests that OIL underperformed DOW from July 2008 till Dec 2008 after which there was an OIL reprieve as OIL moved up from a low of 34.8 to the current near 50 levels. The ratio line is at [...]
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Long INDIA, Short CHINA
History makes observations regarding consistent economic and cultural growth by being self reliant. Revisiting those lessons might suggest a way out of the ongoing crisis.
Also posted in Cross Region Leave a comment
Russia, Oil and the Global Low
I don’t know whether Goldman Sachs would like to review their BRICs MODEL. Former Bear Stearns CEO Alan “Ace” Greenberg says the investment-banking model he helped pioneer is defunct and that Wall Street is dead. If the Wall Street is dead and so is structured finance, I don’t know how far behind is the BRIC [...]
Also posted in Cross Region, Russia Leave a comment
The Hunt brothers – II