Alpha Pair Tracker

The other running pairs like short carbon emissions ETF and Crude, Short Carbon Emission and AIGI (industrial metals) delivered 1.6% and 8% since 15 July respectively. Long Euro – Short dollar is up 16% and still running. GBP USD and JPY gave first signals of exhaustion against dollar.

During an internal brainstorming session, the question which emerged was “Why should be just look at extreme divergence to short the best and long the worst?” and “Why can’t we say keeps the low divergence pair running, say between wheat and grains (No. 4 and 10)?”

The whole idea of playing extreme divergence is about accepting that one can try understanding that assets have diverged more than normal and the path of least resistance is to low or neutral divergence when for example coffee and zinc reduce the gap from worst and best to somewhere mid way. Working with low divergence pairs or non extreme pairs is like guessing how a backwardation will resolve, very tough.

On a final note, our top ranking coffee was number 2 this week. Sugar assumed the top ranking spot. What a better time to talk about sugar but now. Sugar was in the news and the majority is made to believe that there is no asset better than sugar today. For us at Orpheus, Sugar should not only underperform dollar, but also more than a few global assets over the next few weeks. The latest Alpha carries the pair tracker with updated signals and global asset rankings.

Numeric Ranking

Strategy Update

Sector Cycles

Performance Cycles I

Performance Cycles II

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Forex (EUR USD, AUD USD, GBP USD, CAD USD, JPY USD, CHF USD, Yuan Rnmbi, Indian rupee, NZD USD), Energy (Crude, Natural Gas, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Carbon Emissions, Brent, WTM, Energy Index), Metals (Precious Metals, Tin, Zinc, Nickel, Copper, Platinum, Silver, Industrial Metals Index, Gold), Agro (Coffee, Corn, Grains, Livestock, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton), Thematic and Global Equity (Coal Mining Fund, Shipping Fund, Dow Industrials, Sense, Agricultural Equity, Water, Nuclear, Russell 2000, Russell 1000 USD), Bonds (US 30, US 5Y,  US 10Y, US 2Y, INR Bond Index, China Bond Index, Australian Bond Fund, Global Bond Index, Sweden Bond Index).

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

Orpheus Research at Reuters – United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters – United States

Cornering markets may have come off age, but even today traders dare to take large bets. How safe is it? What do historical cases suggest? Are there any signatures linked with such trades? What does numeric ranking of global portfolio suggest? Time does not differentiate between assets. If coffee is the best in a quarter compared to 54 global assets and Zinc is the worst, it’s easy to make a cross asset case, where we go long Zinc and short Coffee. We initiate the pair today.

To read more about…

Anthony Ward’s 658 million pound cocoa trade and how softs are under extreme buy pressure?
How Hunt brothers cornered the silver market?
How cornering is more about tops than bottoms?
Why there are few attempts to corner gold?
What’s the update on our gold undeperformance case?
What about crude and brent performance cycles?

Read the complete article at Alrroya

..download the latest Alpha Global report from the links below.

The latest Alpha Global carries pair tracker signals, numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles. For more information on Alpha Global mail us at support@orpheus.asia

Performance Cycles – Aggregate Assets

Numeric Ranking Sectors

Performance Cycles – I

Performance Cycles II

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Forex (EUR USD, AUD USD, GBP USD, CAD USD, JPY USD, CHF USD, Yuan Rnmbi, Indian rupee, NZD USD), Energy (Crude, Natural Gas, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Carbon Emissions, Brent, WTM, Energy Index), Metals (Precious Metals, Tin, Zinc, Nickel, Copper, Platinum, Silver, Industrial Metals Index, Gold), Agro (Coffee, Corn, Grains, Livestock, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton), Thematic and Global Equity (Coal Mining Fund, Shipping Fund, Dow Industrials, Sense, Agricultural Equity, Water, Nuclear, Russell 2000, Russell 1000 USD), Bonds (US 30, US 5Y,  US 10Y, US 2Y, INR Bond Index, China Bond Index, Australian Bond Fund, Global Bond Index, Sweden Bond Index).

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

Orpheus Research at Reuters – United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters – United States

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Agro, Forex, Metals, Energy

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

We have been talking about trading highly correlated pairs since July 2008. Today we initiate short heating oil and long AIGE (DJ-USBCI Energy Index ETF). Performance cycles suggest that heating oil should underperform the Energy Index. Natural Gas delivered against AIGE and Carbon (CARB.L) since April this year delivering 17% and 22% respectively. Highly correlated, negatively correlated or poor correlated pairs don’t mean much if one does not study cyclicality in correlation.

The latest alpha carries numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles, new pair signals, strategy updates and pair tracker.
For more information on Alpha Energy mail us at support@orpheus.asia

Numeric Ranking

Strategy Update

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : Nat Gas ETC, XLE Spdr, Schlumberger, Conoco Phillips, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Apache Corporation, Anadarko petroleum, Gazprom, Nat Gas Spot, Devon Energy, Halliburton, XTO Energy, Transocean, Marathon Oil, EOG Resources, National Oilwell, Hess, Chesapeake, South Western, Diamond Offshore, Baker Hughes, Weatherford, Carbon, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Gasoline, Crude Oil.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

This is what we said on 24 Mar. “Will Nat Gas bottom against the energy complex? Yes. NAT GAS after collapsing against AIGE delivering 25% since 29 Jan 2010 should reverse in polarity now.”

What happened? Long NGAS (ETC), AIGE is up 10.3%. The last pair on NGAS – AIGE delivered 40%. We will not be surprised if the running pair matches that performance. We have a new pair on Heating Oil .

The latest alpha carries numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles, new pair signals, strategy updates and pair tracker. To keep updated on alpha energy signals subscribe to alpha energy.

Numeric Ranking

Strategy Update

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : Nat Gas ETC, XLE Spdr, Schlumberger, Conoco Phillips, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Apache Corporation, Anadarko petroleum, Gazprom, Nat Gas Spot, Devon Energy, Halliburton, XTO Energy, Transocean, Marathon Oil, EOG Resources, National Oilwell, Hess, Chesapeake, South Western, Diamond Offshore, Baker Hughes, Weatherford, Carbon, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Gasoline, Crude Oil.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Speaking from an intermarket perspective, the dynamics between commodities and equity based on commodities go hand in hand. And leadership or divergence happens near significant reversals. There are very few cases of divergence analysis which illustrate how much can equity diverge from its underlying commodity. The latest Alpha Energy illustrates the divergence case between XLE SPDR and the AIGE (Energy Complex). The short AIGE, long XLE delivered 250% divergence from 30 Jun 2008 till 10 Feb 2009. Is this divergence valuable information? Is this divergence cyclical? The answer to both these questions is. Yes!

The latest alpha carries numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles, pair signals, strategy updates and running signals. Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ENERGY. For more information on Alpha drop us a mail.

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : Nat Gas ETC, XLE Spdr, Schlumberger, Conoco Phillips, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Apache Corporation, Anadarko petroleum, Gazprom, Nat Gas Spot, Devon Energy, Halliburton, XTO Energy, Transocean, Marathon Oil, EOG Resources, National Oilwell, Hess, Chesapeake, South Western, Diamond Offshore, Baker Hughes, Weatherford, Carbon, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Gasoline, Crude Oil.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles
ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : Nat Gas ETC, XLE Spdr, Schlumberger, Conoco Phillips, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Apache Corporation, Anadarko petroleum, Gazprom, Nat Gas Spot, Devon Energy, Halliburton, XTO Energy, Transocean, Marathon Oil, EOG Resources, National Oilwell, Hess, Chesapeake, South Western, Diamond Offshore, Baker Hughes, Weatherford, Carbon, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Petroleum

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Starting 14 Oct 2008 to 12 Jan 2010, long Halliburton, short AIGE (Energy Index ETC) delivered 123%. This was 99% annualized gains. Anadarko is still running outperformance pair against AIGE (Energy Complex Index ETC) up 14% since 8 Feb 2010.

The latest alpha energy carries numeric rankings for top 30 energy assets. We have replaced some stocks with Petroleum, Carbon, Heating Oil, Nat GAS ETC’s.

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : Nat Gas ETC, XLE Spdr, Schlumberger, Conoco Phillips, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Apache Corporation, Anadarko petroleum, Gazprom, Nat Gas Spot, Devon Energy, Halliburton, XTO Energy, Transocean, Marathon Oil, EOG Resources, National Oilwell, Hess, Chesapeake, South Western, Diamond Offshore, Baker Hughes, Weatherford, Carbon, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Petroleum

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : IPNG – Nat Gas Index, XLE Spdr, Schlumberger, Conoco Phillips, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Apache Corporation, Anadarko petroleum, Gazprom, Nat Gas Spot, Devon Energy, Halliburton, XTO Energy, Transocean, Marathon Oil, EOG Resources, National Oilwell, Hess, Chesapeake, South Western, Diamond Offshore, Baker Hughes, Weatherford, Noble Energy, The William Companies, First Solar, Noble Corporation, Murphy Oil

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

“Contrarianism works because it is the closest to TIME. Now that Natural Gas outlook is at an extreme, the Long Natural Gas – Short Brent strategy is worth its weight in Gold. The intermediate cycles have already turned up and we should have some confirmation on primary (multi month) performance cycles soon. Moreover the way Fundamentalists are being quoted in New York Times, their sentiment is at an extreme against Natural Gas. “Natural Gas, Suddenly abundant, is cheaper”, “This is a drastic collapse”, “There is a world bubble, a production glut”, “Natural Gas is loosely connected to world oil benchmark”. We at Orpheus are alone illustrating the performance cycle between NAT GAS and BRENT. The sentiment extreme seems to validate our pair and naked asset view that NATGAS is ready to outperform.”

What happened? Nat Gas outperformed Brent and registered 116% in 207 days.  The other pair carried on 22 Nov between long Gazprom – Short Chevron is still running. The latest Alpha.energy covers the following 30 assets now. Brent, IPNG – Nat Gas Index, XLE SPDR, Schlumberger, Conoco Phillips, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Apache Corporation, Anadarko petroleum, Gazprom, Nat Gas Spot, Devon Energy, Halliburton, XTO Energy, Transocean, Marathon Oil, EOG Resources, National Oilwell, Hess, Chesapeake, South Western, Diamond Offshore, Baker Hughes, Weatherford, Noble Energy, The William Companies, First Solar, Noble Corporation and Murphy Oil.

After outperforming, NATGAS spot tops the Numeric Rankings. Gazprom and First Solar are still at the bottom of the Numeric Rankings. The news has changed. Now winters are the one taking the blame.

Wall Street Journal, Jan 7

“Natural-gas futures shot more than 6% higher, settling at their highest level in a year, amid forecasts for cold weather that could inhibit production and cut into high levels of natural gas in storage.”

First solar on the other side can’t be a stock market favorite when it publishes news of achieving manufacturing costs below $1 per watt. Gazprom is reeling low in rankings because the price did not push above Oct 2009 highs and the Chief Executive of the company expressed concerns regarding payments. Either the prices of First Solar and Gazprom should finally push up under the back of some positive news or it is time for Oil to top. In any case both First Solar and Gazprom should outperform Brent Oil.

Numeric rankings and performance cycles suggest that XLE SPDR, Conoco, Chevron, Halliburton, XTO, National Oilwell, EOG should continue to underperform Oil prices, while Anadarko, Weatherford and Murphy Oil should outperform in the weeks ahead.

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Enjoy the latest Alpha.Energy

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals.  Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : IPNG – Nat Gas Index, XLE Spdr, Schlumberger, Conoco Phillips, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Apache Corporation, Anadarko petroleum, Gazprom, Nat Gas Spot, Devon Energy, Halliburton, XTO Energy, Transocean, Marathon Oil, EOG Resources, National Oilwell, Hess, Chesapeake, South Western, Diamond Offshore, Baker Hughes, Weatherford, Noble Energy, The William Companies, First Solar, Noble Corporation, Murphy Oil

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver?  Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA