Econohistory » BETFI

LONG ONLY – ROMANIA

Orpheus — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 14:16:18 +0000

We have included the following indices and stocks. SIF2, SIF5, BRD, ERST, TGN. BET, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP. Based on reader feedback we will be carrying SUB MINOR ALPHA trades (2-3 days) on our intra day offer TICKS. If you are a short term trader ask for a free trial of TICKS.ROM. Looking forward to your feedback, suggestions and clarifications.

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ROM

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT ALPHA.ROM.170809

LONG ONLY – ROMANIA

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only and short only strategy product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

TIME ARBITRAGE portfolio has five pairs now viz. BRD-BET, BETXT-SNP, SIF2-SIF5, BRD-BETXT, BET-SNP. The above tracker will be updated on a daily basis. The freshly opened trades will have the shortest holding periods. The type of trade will be depicted in the degree i.e. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 4% per traded pair. BRD/BET means LONG BRD, SHORT BET. This also means +A-B. When the pair inverts to BET/BRD, it would mean SHORT BRD, LONG BET meaning -A+B.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers SIF2, SIF5, BRD, ERST, TGN. BET, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

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LONG ONLY – ROMANIA

It was on 22 July we introduced the pairs based on TIME ARBITRAGE. Today we are adding the LONG ONLY ROMANIA portfolio on MINOR (10-30 days) to the existing TIME ANALYTICS offer. TIME FRACTALS can identify and isolate market performance across time frames. We started with pairs and now have added plain assets. On the first impression one might think that the returns seem better on single assets and pairs seem relatively more work. The reality is different. Pairs remain lower on the risk – return profile. While LONG ONLY or SHORT ONLY on single assets are higher on the risk return scale. The LONG ONLY portfolio will be updated every day. We have included the following indices and stocks. SIF2, SIF5, BRD, ERST, TGN. BET, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP. Based on reader feedback we will be carrying SUB MINOR ALPHA trades (2-3 days) on our intra day offer TICKS. If you are a short term trader ask for a free trial of TICKS.ROM. Looking forward to your feedback, suggestions and clarifications.

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ROM

INTRODUCING ALPHA ROMANIA

Orpheus — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 21:55:22 +0000

Performance between assets are cyclical and ordered. In continuation of our work on TIME TRIADS and Econohistory, we introduce ALPHA ROMANIA. This is a trending product which carries signal based on performance cycles of Romanian market pairs. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research. We are also working on some anticipatory products linked with time projection, which will extend our analytics based offer.

The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. In the debut product we are carrying backtested results from three pairs (BET-SNP, BET-BRD, SIF2-SIF5). The signals will be illustrated through a BINARY CHART (SLIDE1). A positive 1 will initiate an open pair position and 0 will be a signal to close. We will also be carrying a live performance portfolio tracker.

Despite the fact that the time triads isolate real performance between closely or losely linked pairs, the backtested results illustrate here should be judged critically. The respective results are not adjusted for brokerage fees, bid-ask spreads, slippage and other execution related costs. Conservatively putting we are targeting 30% annualised spot returns. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high networth clients for selective trades.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications.

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ROM

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ECONOHISTORY research products.

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ECONOHISTORY PAIR TRACKER

Orpheus — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 06:01:58 +0000

These are some of the pairs we initiated recently across global markets, commodities, India and Romania. The best pair returns were delivered by Long BRD, SHORT BETFI at 24% (66 DAYS). The other top pairs were LONG Nat Gas, SHORT OIL. The pair delivered 18% over 24 days. It might look surprising for a conventional researcher, how something so simple can be profitable. But then what is simple is the toughest to believe. None of the pairs are in a loss, every pair delivered. We will be adding more pairs to our trackers over the coming weeks. This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. Also please keep in mind, we are just illustrating entry points here. For exit time horizon please subscribe to our weekly ECONOHISTORY product.

On the naked asset side, we continue to be negative on local markets. We will be coming out with the Romanian Sentiment Survey shortly.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.ROM

WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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WAVES.ROM – BETFI VS BRD PAIR DELIVERS 21% IN 57 DAYS

Orpheus — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 07:17:48 +0000

We have been highlighting performance cycles on Romanian markets for some time now. This is a part of our work on TIME FRACTALS. You can read more about TIME onTIMETRIADS.COM and track global pairs and Romanian pairs on ECONOHISTORY.COM . As markets extended we talked about value outperforming broader market. We also mentioned regarding BETC and BETFI suggesting that leading nature of BETFI at the market bottom are some signals we would not like to miss for a sustained trend. Performance cycles can time the market by illustrating how sectors move against each other, what stock is outperforming and why? It was in continuation of this we mentioned on this on 19 MAY.

“BETFI starts to underperform BRD. The banking major should continue to outperform BETFI for rest of the year.”.

Well even if we are well looking into Q3, this pair can tell us where Romanian capital markets are headed. The pair delivered 21% since 04 MAY. To understand how to isolate pairs and trade them for relative alpha, write to us today for a presentation on performance cycles.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.ROM

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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WAVES.ROM – ARE WE GOING UP?

Orpheus — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 08:43:34 +0000

It’s too early too look for a change of view. Why?

First: BETFI vs. BETC pair is overstretched against BETFI. Historically all these extremes have been followed by a drop in BETFI. How can it be explained? BETFI is blue chip compared to the broad based BETC. When blue chip reaches an outperformance extreme against broad market, markets generally pause and drop.

Second: The excitement on BETFI is not witnessed in BETC, BETNG, BETXT and BET. One index excitement maybe too much to turn around an exhausting multi month trend.

Third: Both BRD and ERST have Key Reversal bars which are unbroken. Till we see a break in prices, we don’ t have negative confirmation.

Fourth: TEL and TGN utility majors remain negative.This is why any similarities to a continuation TRIANGLE in BETFI may be too early a signal to change our DOWN RECO. We have enclosed the relevant cases.

Enjoy the special update on WAVES.ROM

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

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