The Indian market is at a key inflexion point.The minor market view remains up but topping, meanwhile a break on subminor at key 5,360 levels would further confirm at least short-term negativity. Further downmove should confirm whether this week’s high was the minor top or not. Indian Nifty VIX is at all time low. Broad market Indices made key reversals after touching intermediate and primary highs (in some cases). Many lagging sectors (metals) are breaking continuation head and shoulder formations.
The banking sector is our top potential underperformer sector, which means that the banking stocks should fall more than the broad market in the next few weeks. Bseoil is the top potential outperformer sector and should fall less than the broad market, according to our preferred negative view. HDFC and WIPRO remain at the two extremes of our Nifty 50 numeric ranking.
Our pair tracker carries two running pairs, Nifty – Tisco and Nifty – Sterlite. The long only – short only tracker is all positive, with DLF as the best positive stock.
The latest Alpha India carries long only – short only signals, pair tracker, numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles.
For more information on Alpha India mail us at support@orpheus.asia
Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.
India Accuracy Report 2009
Alpha India
Alpha is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.
Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation.
Coverage India: BSE Health Care and components
Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%
Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.
*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.
Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.
Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.
To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.
Orpheus Research at Reuters – United Kingdom
Alpha.India – The New Alpha
Orpheus Early Economic Sector
The New Alpha is a new approach to look at numeric ranking and performance cycles. We changed the benchmark from Nifty to Indian Rupee Index. As we have mentioned on prior occasions, time cyclicality reflects irrespective of the benchmark or the comparison parameter we choose. And since all indices and stock prices are already expressed in Indian Rupee, plotting them against the currency index should also give an absolute indication of price direction along with the under or outperformance ranking status. We are now monitoring 54 assets which includes 12 sector indices (including the broad market), 15 early economic stocks, 12 mid economic stocks and 15 late economic stocks. Early, Mid and late economic are Orpheus classification of sectors. Early includes Information technology and financials, middle economic are made of industrials and late economic consists of staples, energy, utilities, materials and pharmaceuticals. As economic cycle changes the early, mid and late economic will move in and out of performance. The new alpha could give us an indication where the economic cycle is headed tomorrow and where the money is going to flow.
As expected the new Alpha shows similar signals on the respective assets like last week. Metals is still the top potential outperformer, along with 3 metal stocks viz. Sterlite, Tisco and Hindalco. This suggests that our running pairs, short Nifty-long Sterlite and short Nifty – long Hindalco should continue to deliver gains. The report illustrates the return line for both pairs.
Our top potential underperformer stocks are ONGC, L&T and M&M, meanwhile on the sector side we have Consumer Durables, Bseauto and Capital Goods at the top of the list.
Our long only – short only tracker remains all positive, with Tata Power as the best buy. We filtered the calls with our new Numeric Ranking. The top winners are L&T and IDFC which are up 8% and 7% respectively. The latest Alpha India carries long only – short only signals, pair tracker, numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles.
For more information on Alpha India mail us at support@orpheus.asia
Performance Cycles
Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.
India Accuracy Report 2009
Alpha India
Alpha is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.
Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation.
Coverage India: BSE Health Care and components
Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%
Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.
*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.
Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.
Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.
To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.
Orpheus Research at Reuters – United Kingdom
Orpheus Research at Reuters – United States